[2.9.23 Update]  Those who “subscribe to the website” will receive instant email alerts of the latest postings.  This site will be undergoing some changes/alterations just yet, focusing exclusively on geological events, which are based in mathematics.  

 Keeping up with data sets requires not taking your eyes off the ball for a second, and I’ve not had that luxury.  

My wish list for this year would be to create a computer program for marking geological events, but I will not be able to accomplish that anytime soon, at least not without some help.  The news footage from Turkey and Syria is horrendous, and I’m not even sure that better building construction would have helped because at a certain magnitude, the ground liquefies. 

Reality:  Someone said to me recently, “Why even bother when no one is going to (a) do anything about it anyway or (b) believe it’s even possible to use mathematics to forecast geological events?”  True.  I get the point.  Yet I never started working on any of this by thinking “Why bother?” as much as “How can I?” 

What I’ve looked at specifically in terms of geological news back in August 2022.  To do this much took hours of scritch-scratching calculations and data-gathering, and there’s merit to the effort:

• More heavy rains/mudslides on the CA coast in general this upcoming late autumn. [12.9.22 Update.  November mudslides reported in CA.  1.10.22 Update:  more mudslides.]

• October 9-23rd, strong odds for another impactful high-wind/rain storm, whether it be a hurricane or something similar. I don’t have the location mapped out.  [11.2.22 update:  Hurricane Ian landed in Florida during 9.23 through 10.2.22 and Hurricane Julia landed in Nicaragua on 10.9.22]

• We’ve been having a remarkable trend of 5.0+ quakes since the end of August, and this continues into October. Expect to see one or two in this range or higher make headlines. I’ve been doing a study on pinpointing locales. We had a pair of small magnitude 3.0+ quakes in Southern CA toward 9.4.22, and I’m projecting something similar for that area for first half of December. [11.2.22 Update:  Bay Area, CA 5.1+ mag struck 10.25.22 and a 6.4+ quake struck the northern Philippines on 10.25.22 as well.] [12.9.2022 Update:  Ocotillo, CA, 4.0+ mag on 12.1.22]

• I started another mathematical study of volcanic eruptions based on prior events, and based on that data, am projecting news of a new eruption toward late March/early April of 2023 and another in May of 2023.]. [5.25.23 Update: okay, finally an update on what I’d projected toward the end of last August, 2022.  It wasn’t a new eruption but an entire cluster of them within the specified timeframe, starting with:
  • March 10, 2023, with significant activity surrounding Tanaga, which has been dormant since 1914. 
  • March 11, 2023 with Indonesia’s Mt. Merapi
  • April 11 with Russia’s Kamchatka;
  • May 5, 2023 with Guatemal’s Fuego;
  • May 5, 2023 with Colombia’s Nevado del Ruiz;
  • May 22, 2023, Sicily’s Mt. Etna; not surprising with Etna always being active, however this disrupted flights;
  • May 25, 2023:  Mexico City’s Popcatpetl. 

• NYC area, possible snowfall and/or high winds in the days surrounding 11.8.22, in addition to an underground disturbance that could be seismic activity we’ve experienced randomly in the past. [12.9.22 Update: Seismic activity in NY State on 11.21.22, a 2.2+, small but rare as hen’s teeth.  Wind speed from 12.8.22 through 12.15.22 averaged 21 mph when the average for this time of year is 10.43 mph.]