4.6.24 Update

I’ve been busy.  Department of Speculation post.  We just had a quake in New Jersey on 4.5.24.  The next notable one coming up looks like it could be a reiteration of Oklahoma City’s 5.8+ from 9.3.2016.  Or perhaps a bit north into Kansas.  New Madrid/Meers Fault territory.  Timeframe appears to be anywhere from 4/8/24 through the first week of May 2024, with additional significant seismic activity in Indonesia and Hawaii.

[5.28.24 Update:]  Oklahoma experienced a 3.1+ quake on 5.2.24, which is a good result for timing specificity.  

Indonesia, 6.3+ on 4.27.24.

Kilauea, Hawaii:  a flurry of quakes closed parts of the Hawaii Volcanoes National Parks in the same timeframe. 

 

* * *

West Coast

[10.15.23]. Odds are up through the end of this year for a 5.5+ (or larger) quake in the west coast of California, very Northridge, Long Beach/Malibu, Fort Tejon or else very Loma Prieta/1957/Daly City, San Francisco area in character, as early as late October into December of 2023.

[11.19.23 Update]. I am downgrading the projected magnitude to the 3.5-4.5+ range toward the dates of 11.27.23 and 12.29.23, give or take a few days in either direction. The projected ~11.27.23 would be within the northern/San Francisco area and the ~12.29.23 could anywhere along the west coast, north to south, really hard to tell. These are small to mid-range and calculated mathematically.  [12.29.23 Update: a 12.28.29 quake of 3.4+ occurred 3 m NW of The Geysers, CA, north of San Francisco Bay.  In a strange way, it’s almost easier to simply focus on the larger magnitude quakes because they stand out more.]   

12.29.23 Forecast:  strong indicators of 5+ or larger quake potential exist in January-February 2024 between Mexico City on through Colombia in terms of area/region, which is a bit wider geographically than I’d care to specify…but it is what it is. 

[1.27.24 Update, regarding the above, a 6.1+ in Guatemala.]

New Look/October 2022

[2.9.23 Update]  Those who “subscribe to the website” will receive instant email alerts of the latest postings.  This site will be undergoing some changes/alterations just yet, focusing exclusively on geological events, which are based in mathematics.  

 Keeping up with data sets requires not taking your eyes off the ball for a second, and I’ve not had that luxury.  

My wish list for this year would be to create a computer program for marking geological events, but I will not be able to accomplish that anytime soon, at least not without some help.  The news footage from Turkey and Syria is horrendous, and I’m not even sure that better building construction would have helped because at a certain magnitude, the ground liquefies. 

Reality:  Someone said to me recently, “Why even bother when no one is going to (a) do anything about it anyway or (b) believe it’s even possible to use mathematics to forecast geological events?”  True.  I get the point.  Yet I never started working on any of this by thinking “Why bother?” as much as “How can I?” 

What I’ve looked at specifically in terms of geological news back in August 2022.  To do this much took hours of scritch-scratching calculations and data-gathering, and there’s merit to the effort:

  • October 9-23rd, strong odds for another impactful high-wind/rain storm, whether it be a hurricane or something similar. I don’t have the location mapped out.  [11.2.22 update:  Hurricane Ian landed in Florida during 9.23 through 10.2.22 and Hurricane Julia landed in Nicaragua on 10.9.22]

  • I started another mathematical study of volcanic eruptions based on prior events, and based on that data, am projecting news of a new eruption toward late March/early April of 2023 and another in May of 2023.]. [5.25.23 Update: okay, finally an update on what I’d projected toward the end of last August, 2022.  It wasn’t a new eruption but an entire cluster of them within the specified timeframe, starting with:
    • March 10, 2023, with significant activity surrounding Tanaga, which has been dormant since 1914. 
    • March 11, 2023 with Indonesia’s Mt. Merapi
    • April 11 with Russia’s Kamchatka;
    • May 5, 2023 with Guatemal’s Fuego;
    • May 5, 2023 with Colombia’s Nevado del Ruiz;
    • May 22, 2023, Sicily’s Mt. Etna; not surprising with Etna always being active, however this disrupted flights;
    • May 25, 2023:  Mexico City’s Popcatpetl. 

  • NYC area, possible snowfall and/or high winds in the days surrounding 11.8.22, in addition to an underground disturbance that could be seismic activity we’ve experienced randomly in the past. [12.9.22 Update: Seismic activity in NY State on 11.21.22, a 2.2+, small but rare as hen’s teeth.  Wind speed from 12.8.22 through 12.15.22 averaged 21 mph when the average for this time of year is 10.43 mph.]

December 2021 Natural Phenomena

 

I made a scribble on a post-it of an IF condition based on some calculations, as in, “IF a quake occurs 11.29.21, it would fall in the ~5.5+ range or much higher but toward the southern end of California, give or take 24 hours. Southern CA in this case, means the LA area on through Baja, California. Of course I’d love to be more precise on coordinates, and maybe I’ll get there eventually. Again, the focus is on the West Coast only, for now–not the rest of the world.

As a more probable When statement(not an IF), I’d scribbled that there’s likely to be smaller quake activity (4.0+ or less) registering:

(1) off the coastal area of Northern California, ~11.29.21 (+/- 24 hours.)

(2) southern end of CA toward around 12.1.21 through 12.3.21, (give or take 24 hours); [Turned out to be 4.5+]

(3) 4.9+ or greater in the British Vancouver or Juneau area toward 12.2.21, (+/- 24 hours,) ~1 AM-6:30 AM UTC; [Turned out to be 3.1+]

(4) 4.5+ or greater in the Los Angeles area downward through San Diego toward 12.5.21 (+/- 24 hours) OR, more likely toward this subset: (a) 12.19.21 (+/- 24 hours.) (b) 1.17.22 (+/- 24 hours).

All of this is based in mathematics.

Early this morning there was a 7.5+ quake near Barranca, Peru, 11.28.21. What’s interesting is that I did note the IF condition for 11.29.21 +/- 24 hours, it would be an event of larger magnitude.

This morning I googled and found this article, which I did not see because I was looking at my maths only. Two small quakes 4.1+ and 3.5+, did occur off the coastal area of Northern California but on Friday, 11.26.21 and 11.27.21.

So let’s revisit this all later.

[12.4.21 Update: Large magnitude quakes [6.0+} forthcoming in 2022, though I’m sure we’ll see a couple more for 2021 just yet: 1.17-18.22 and toward 3.2.22. Where? That’s for another post–I need to do the work.]

[1.19.22 Update:  Tonga quake and tsunami occurred 1.16.22]

 
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